SMM Aluminum Market Morning Review (2013-7-3)

SHANGHAI, Jul. 3 (SMM) – Weak June manufacturing PMI in China rekindled worries over demand in the world’s second largest economy. US economic data released last night were mixed. ISM New York business activity index for June and IBD consumer confidence index for July both fell sharply, but factory orders in May grew more than expected. This kept investors cautious over non-farm employment to be released this Friday. The US dollar index rose as a result, causing commodity prices to give back gains. LME aluminum broke through the 20-day moving average to USD 1,852/mt during the European session, but surrendered gains at the tail of the session as investors closed positions at highs. Finally, LME aluminum closed up USD 0.8/mt or 0.04% at USD 1,824.8/mt. LME aluminum inventories contracted 5,500 mt to 5,444,675 mt, but positions added 5,925 lots to 756,728 lots. 

Aluminum prices will remain low as markets are cautious ahead of the US non-farm employment report. LME aluminum will stagnate at USD 1,825/mt and move within USD 1,800-1,850/mt on Wednesday. SHFE 1310 aluminum contract is expected to open at RMB 14,350/mt, with prices between RMB 14,300-14,400/mt. In spot market, trading will be light due to the seasonal low demand period, with spot discount of RMB 0-40/mt expected over SHFE 1307 aluminum contract prices.