SMM Lead Weekly Price Review and Forecast (1-5 Jul. 2013)

Cargo holders in China’s spot lead markets were selling goods more aggressively last week due to urgent month-end cash flow needs, but downstream buyers showed little interest. Some smelters were also more willing to move goods, but recent maintenance and production cuts allowed many smelters only enough output for long-term orders. As a result, spot markets saw no surge in supply and with spot lead prices still low at RMB 13,700-13,780/mt. Downstream buying interest should grow this week as the new month eases tight cash flows, but buyers still may only purchase to order during the low demand season. Smelters will continue to hold prices firm, but trading activity of middlemen may increase. In this context, transactions should improve with spot lead prices expected at RMB 13,700-13,850/mt.