SMM Aluminum Market Morning Review (2013-6-18)

SHANGHAI, Jun. 18 (SMM) – LME aluminum inventories surged 59,600 mt to 5.28 million mt, a new record high. Spot aluminum inventories in China stopped falling following the Chinese Dragon Boat Festival, now holding stable at 1 million mt. Growing oversupply pressure sent LME aluminum below USD 1,850/mt to USD 1,833/mt during the European trading session, the lowest in a month. However, LME aluminum recouped some of earlier losses as New York Fed manufacturing index in June rose more than expected to 7.84, and finally ended down 0.60% at USD 1,850.3/mt, down for seven days in a row. Positions fell 4,380 lots to 765,045 lots.

Growing oversupply pressure will drag the light metal down, with LME aluminum stagnant at USD 1,850/mt and moving within USD 1,830-1,870/mt on Tuesday. SHFE 1309 aluminum contract is expected to open lower at RMB 14,650/mt, with prices between RMB 14,600-14,700/mt. In spot market, abundant supply against limited consumption will leave spot aluminum at a discount of RMB 30-70/mt over SHFE 1306 aluminum contract prices