SMM Aluminum Market Morning Review (2013-4-25)

SHANGHAI, Apr. 25 (SMM) – The US durable goods orders declined 5.7% MoM in March, the biggest decline in eight months and well below expectations. The US dollar index fell below 83, helping LME aluminum find support at USD 1,900/mt. However, weak economic data curbed gains of LME aluminum, which met resistance at the 30-day moving average and only hit a high of USD 1,914/mt during early European session. Finally, LME aluminum ended the day 1.06% higher at USD 1,907/mt. Latest LME aluminum inventories decreased 9,125 mt to 5,167,075 mt.

Aluminum prices should move within tight ranges in the short term, with LME aluminum expected to struggle at USD 1,900/mt and fluctuate between USD 1,890-1,910/mt on Thursday. SHFE 1307 aluminum contract will likely become the most active one today, which should open at RMB 14,600/mt and move in a RMB 14,550-14,650/mt range. In spot market, increased restocking downstream will give a lift to spot aluminum, but gains will be constrained by supply overhang. Spot discounts of RMB 70-110/mt are expected over SHFE 1305 aluminum contract.