SMM Aluminum Price Forecast (Apr. 22-26, 2013)

SHANGHAI, Apr. 22 (SMM) – Inspiring news on production cuts at aluminum smelters has faded. Growing oversupply pressure against stable consumption weakened upward momentum of aluminum prices in China. SHFE 1306 aluminum contract prices basically moved within a RMB 14,500-14,600/mt range, but still tumbled to RMB 14,220/mt last Thursday as SHFE copper prices plummeted, but then rose to RMB 14,500/mt as shorts closed positions.

Spot aluminum hovered around RMB 14,400/mt early last week. Although LME aluminum rebounded and SHFE aluminum was resilient, spot aluminum hit a ceiling after climbing to RMB 14,450/mt as downstream producers resisted high prices. Later in the week, traders rushed to sell after copper prices plummeted, but middlemen were cautious. Spot aluminum tumbled to RMB 14,370/mt last Thursday, but even the low price failed to stoke much interest. Mainstream traded prices were at a discount of RMB 100/mt over SHFE 1305 aluminum contract.