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SMM Tin Market Morning Review (2013-4-19)
Apr 19,2013 10:00CST
price review forecast
SMM expects LME tin to find support at USD 20,200/mt. In domestic tin market, spot prices are expected to move between RMB 140,500-143,500/mt on Friday.

SHANGHAI, Apr. 19 (SMM)-LME tin market overnight opened at USD 20,400/mt, with the highest and lowest level of USD 20,952/mt and USD 19,610/mt, respectively. Finally, LME tin market closed at USD 20,751/mt, up USD 276/mt from a day earlier.  Trading volumes were 878 lots, up 309 lots. Positions were 21,055 lots, up 294 lots. Inventories were unchanged at 14,625 mt.

LME tin market overnight tumbled during Asian trading hours, hitting USD 19,610/mt, but rebounded during European trading hours thanks to a euro rally, strong sales of Spanish bond sales, and the approval of the aid plan for Cyprus by the Lower House of German Parliament. As a result, LME tin market regained USD 20,000/mt, and finally closed at USD 20,751/mt, up USD 276/mt.

The US Department of Labor released April 18 the initial jobless claims came in at 352,000, slightly higher than market expectations, and gaining the fourth time in recent five weeks. Meanwhile, the US economic leading indicator for March was off 0.1%, and the reading for February was unchanged at 0.5%. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's business-activity index for April was 1.3%, down from 2.0% in March. All these, together with the earlier disappointing employment data, suggest weak economic performance in the US. In response, the Fed is dominated by Doves over the quantitative easing measures. The dollar index briefly slid to 82.35, and advanced to 82.60 at the tail of trading.

The Lower House of German Parliament overwhelmingly approved the aid plan for Cyprus, and seven-year loan extension for Ireland and Portugal. In addition, Spanish and French bond sales draw strong demand, and the level of non-performing loans in the Spanish banking system was down, both helping boost market sentiment. As a result, risky currencies briefly hit an interday high. However, the news that Italy’s parliament failed to elect a new president in the first round of voting undermined market confidence, dragging down risky currencies.

In China, the yuan against the dollar dropped on April 18, bringing the fourth consecutive day of gains to an end. The round of strong gains was due mainly to cross-border capital inflows, promoted by fresh monetary policies in Japan and US QEs aimed for economic recovery. Currently, market is dominated by a strong wait-and-see attitude, waiting for a clear market direction. The G20 Finance Minister Meeting is scheduled to be convened on April 18, and the two-day meeting will center around the latest aggressive monetary measures taken by Japan.  

Market focus is now shifted to the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meeting. LME tin market overnight rebounded, but there are many uncertainties around macro-economic aspects. SMM expects LME tin to find support at USD 20,200/mt.  In domestic tin market, spot prices are expected to move between RMB 140,500-143,500/mt on Friday.

LME tin market
domestic tin prices

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