SMM Aluminum Market Morning Review (2013-4-19)

SHANGHAI, Apr. 19 (SMM) – Gold prices stabilized following earlier sharp declines, keeping the US dollar index in check. Short-covering helped push LME aluminum above USD 1,900/mt. However, a slight rise in the US weekly initial jobless claims, slowing Philadelphia Fed manufacturing in April and unexpected fall in Conference Board’s March leading indicators deprived the upward momentum of LME aluminum. Finally, LME aluminum ended the day up 1.24% at USD 1,915/mt. Latest LME aluminum inventories increased 6,100 mt to 5,194,575 mt.

Weak US economic data will discourage longs from entering the market. LME aluminum should struggle at USD 1,900/mt, with prices between USD 1,890-1,920/mt on Friday. SHFE 1306 aluminum contract is expected to open higher at RMB 14,520/mt and move in a RMB 14,470-14,570/mt range. In spot market, downstream producers will be reluctant to buy at highs, with spot discounts expected between RMB 60-100/mt, and with moderate trading expected.