SMM Aluminum Market Morning Review (2013-4-18)

SHANGHAI, Apr. 18 (SMM) – The IMF lowered last night its forecast for global economy for this year and the next. The US March economic indicators were disappointing and demand in China is slack. The ECB may consider cutting interest rate should the European economy shrink again. The euro fell overnight, pushing the US dollar index up 1%. LME aluminum retreated below all the moving averages to USD 1,877/mt during the European trading hours as shorts increased positions. Finally, LME aluminum ended the day down 1.65% at USD 1,891.5/mt. Latest LME aluminum inventories decreased 10,525 mt to 5,188,475 mt.

LME aluminum should test support at USD 1,850/mt, with prices between USD 1,850-1,890/mt on Thursday. SHFE 1306 aluminum contract is expected to drop to RMB 14,400/mt at the bottom after opening lower at RMB 14,500/mt. SHFE 1307 aluminum contracts may become the most active one today if shorts increase positions further, and fluctuate in a RMB 14,400-14,500/mt range. In spot market, spot aluminum will be vulnerable at RMB 14,400/mt, with spot discounts expected between RMB 50-90/mt, and with thin trading expected.