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SMM Tin Market Morning Review (2013-4-17)
Apr 17,2013 10:30CST
price review forecast
LME tin is expected to look for solid support at USD 21,200/mt. In domestic tin market, spot prices are expected to move between RMB 143,500-147,000/mt.

SHANGHAI, Apr. 17 (SMM) - LME tin market overnight opened at USD 21,200/mt, with the highest and lowest level of USD 21,500/mt and USD 21,006/mt, respectively. Finally, LME tin market closed at USD 21,210/mt, down USD 65/mt from a day earlier. Trading volumes were 537 lots, down 451 lots. Positions were 20,744 lots, up 240 lots. Inventories were up 265 mt to 14,670 mt.

LME tin market overnight fluctuated widely, and struggled to hold at USD 21,200/mt. The US housing starts for March just released hit the highest level since June 2008, helping boost market confidence. This, coupled with a strong euro and a weak dollar, supported metals prices. Ss a result, LME tin closed at USD 21,210/mt, down USD 65/mt.

The US released April 16 its industrial production for March rose 0.4% compared with the previous month, better than market expectations. Cold weather in March increased utilities output, helping increase the overall reading. Meanwhile, the US housing starts added 1.036 million at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in March, the highest since June 2008. Apartment construction led the surge in March. The housing recovery will likely become a mild driver for economic recovery in 2013. Application for building permits, however, fell unexpectedly to 902,000, below market estimates and the previous data. In other economic figures, the US CPI for March was much lower than market expectations and the previous reading, due largely to falling gasoline prices and soft consumption, raising market attention over the Beige Book to be released this Thursday.

In the euro zone area, European Commission President José Manuel Barroso said he would propose early payment of EU aid supporting the troubled Cyprus. The comments, which helped ease market concerns over the fears of the sale of Cypriot gold reserves, sent the euro up. In addition, the German ZEW economic sentiment slid to 36.3, well below market estimates of 42.0. The disappointing data dampened market confidence, which served as a mirror of sluggish economic data and reflects that the unresolved European debt issues are hitting the biggest economy in the region. Financial experts in the survey remained confident, but not as strong as before.

In China, the national fiscal revenue was 3.2034 trillion yuan in 1Q, up 6.9%, with the growth down 7.8 percentage points from the growth seen last year. Tax revenues were 2.7399 trillion yuan, up 6%, with the growth down 4.3 percentage points. In March, the central fiscal revenue was 382.8 billion yuan, down 5.2%, making the first single monthly decline since August 2012. The drop was due mainly to mild economic growth, structural tax reform, the low growth of trade, and high comparison base of last year. Local fiscal revenue was 578 billion yuan, up 15.1%.

Market focus now is on the UK employment data, the UK interest rate meeting and its results. The market is now still dominated by a bearish sentiment, and time is needed for assuring a sustainable growth. LME tin is expected to look for solid support at USD 21,200/mt. In domestic tin market, spot prices are expected to move between RMB 143,500-147,000/mt.

LME tin market
domestic tin spot prices

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