SMM Tin Market Morning Review (2013-4-16)

SHANGHAI, Apr. 16 (SMM) - LME tin market overnight opened at USD 22,000/mt, with the highest and lowest level of USD 22,000/mt and USD 20,500/mt, respectively. Finally, LME tin market closed at USD 21,275/mt, down USD 700/mt from a day earlier. Trading volumes were 988 lots, up 179 lots. Positions were 20,504 lots, up 62 lots. Inventories were down 75 mt to 14,405 mt.

As LME base metals market overnight continued to slump, LME tin briefly touched USD 20,500/mt, and later pared some losses to close at USD 21,275/mt, down USD 700/mt from a day earlier. Economic growth for 1Q in China came in weaker than market expected, and meanwhile, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for April was also well below market expectations, dampening market confidence. As a result, US equities, precious metals and crude oil continued to slump.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics announced April 15 that the GDP for 1Q reached 11.8855 trillion yuan, based on the comparable prices, there was an increase of 7.7%, missing market expectations of an 8.0% growth. The economic growth at world’s second largest economy again slowed down during the first quarter of 2013 after the a seventh consecutive quarterly decline came to an end in 4Q 2012. Among other figures, the industrial added-value grew 9.5% YoY, down 2.1 percentage points from the growth seen last year. Retail sales of social consumption goods amounted to 5.5451 trillion yuan, up 12.4% (nominal growth), suggesting that economic growth is recovering slowly, bolding bad for the commodity market.

The euro zone’s trade balance for February grew to 10.4 billion euros, the largest surplus since 2004. In February, imports were down from January, and exports were up slightly, an indication that weak demand from consumers and enterprises inside and outside the region will likely curb its economic rebound in 2013. In the US, the international capital flows to the country were 53.6 billion dollars, smaller than January’s scale. In February, US government bonds held by China were 1.22 trillion dollars and 109.7 million dollars, up slightly. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for April, however, fell to 3.05, much lower than market expectations and the previous level. The drop was due largely to sharp declines in new orders, suggesting that the US economic growth may have lost some upward momentum at the beginning of 2Q.  With a slew of negative news, Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones tumbled across the board.

In other news, the report released Monday by the Bank of Japan had upticked economic evaluation for its nine regions, supported by confidence improvement at households and enterprises and a sign of foreign economic recovery.

On Tuesday, a slew of economic figures will be released, including the CPI in the UK, euro zone and the US, and ZEW economic sentiment in Germany. SMM expects LME tin to extend declines, with low-end support at USD 20,500/mt. In the domestic tin market, continuous drops in the LMT tin market will weigh on domestic tin prices, with prices expected between RMB 145,000-148,000/mt on Tuesday.