SMM Aluminum Market Morning Review (2013-4-12)

SHANGHAI, Apr. 12 (SMM) – The US Labor Department announced overnight that US initial jobless claims dropped more than expected to 346,000 in the week ended April 6, boosting confidence over recovery in the country’s jobs market. A weaker US dollar also offered support to the low-end price of commodities. Nevertheless, LME aluminum slipped all the way down to USD 1,887/mt during European session, and failed to regain the 5-day moving average despite upbeat US economic figures. Finally, LME aluminum ended the day down 0.62% at USD 1,896/mt. Latest LME aluminum inventories decreased 10,800 mt to 5,192,100mt.

A softer US dollar will help aluminum prices hold stable. LME aluminum should rise to test resistance at USD 1,900/mt on Friday, with prices between USD 1,880-1,920/mt. SHFE 1306 aluminum contract is expected to open lower at RMB 14,700/mt and move in a RMB 14,650-14,750/mt range. In spot market, spot discounts are expected to narrow to RMB 30-70/mt as delivery date of SHFE 1304 aluminum contracts is approaching. Overall trading will be thin.