SMM Aluminum Market Morning Review (2013-4-10)

SHANGHAI, Apr. 10 (SMM) – China announced yesterday its March CPI climbed 2.1% YoY, better than expected, but its PPI declined 1.9% YoY, pointing to negative growth for a 13th straight month and constraining upside space of commodity prices. The US dollar index was mired during the European trading session, helping LME aluminum advance to the highest for the month at USD 1,922/mt. However, resistance at the 20-day moving average remained due to limited growth in positions by longs. Finally, LME aluminum closed 1.40% higher at USD 1,918.5/mt. Latest LME aluminum inventories decreased 9,825 mt to 5,203,150 mt.

Aluminum prices will move within tight ranges as markets are cautious. LME aluminum should test support at USD 1,900/mt on Wednesday, with prices between USD 1,900-1,930/mt. SHFE 1306 aluminum contract is expected to open at RMB 14,680/mt and move in a RMB 14,630-14,700/mt range. In spot market, spot discounts of RMB 40-80/mt are expected, with overall trading moderate.