SMM Aluminum Price Forecast (Apr. 8-12, 2013)

SHANGHAI, Apr. 8 (SMM) – The SHFE market was closed last Thursday and Friday for the Chinese Qingming holiday. Longs and shorts stayed out of the market before the holiday, keeping SHFE 1306 aluminum contract prices within a RMB 14,535-14,615/mt range, with strong resistance at all moving averages.
 
Buying interest in spot aluminum markets was soft despite increased liquidity at the beginning of the month. Limited pre-holiday stock building caused mainstream traded prices in Shanghai to stagnate near RMB 14,400/mt. The low-end prices in Wuxi and Hangzhou were relatively firm, but overall trading was only moderate.

In this coming week, LME aluminum prices should fluctuate between USD 1,850-1,900/mt, while prices for the most active SHFE aluminum contract should hover around RMB 14,550/mt. Spot aluminum prices will likely test support at RMB 14,400/mt since oversupply pressure is growing and since downstream producers are expected to purchase on an as-needed basis. Spot discounts of RMB 50/mt are expected.