SMM Tin Market Daily Review (2013-3-25)

SHANGHAI, Mar. 26 (SMM) – Spot prices in Shanghai tin market were mainly between RMB 150,000-152,500/mt on Monday. Low-priced goods were limited with quotations below RMB 150,000/mt rarely heard. The slight rebound in LME tin prices gave certain support to spot tin prices, but weak demand prevented prices from rising. In the afternoon, trading was enlivened, as downstream buyers and traders became more interested in purchasing, but prices held stable. Smelters were not willing to sell goods after the continuous declines in tin prices, but prices are expected to stabilize with cheap goods consumed gradually.

SMM survey reveals that half of industry insiders believe tin prices will remain flat this week. LME tin prices showed a sign of rallying last week, but LME tin prices are expected to be weighed down given the overlapped 10 and 20-day moving average reflected by the candlestick chart even if prices break through the resistance at USD 23,200/mt. This will leave little room for LME tin to rebound. In this context, spot tin prices will gain limited support from LME tin, combined with the depressed demand and oversupply, many investors expect spot tin prices may stabilized but will unlikely rise this week.

30% market players expected spot tin prices to increase slightly this week given the anticipations for rebound in LME tin prices and consumption of low-priced goods in domestic spot market, as well as low selling interest among domestic tin smelters.

The remaining 20% market players expect domestic tin prices to fall this week. Some goods were still traded as low as RMB 150,500/mt, while the rebound in LME tin prices are not strong given the upward resistance. As such, any fallback in LME tin will hurt market confidence and cargo holders will lack any support to hold prices firm given the oversupply in domestic spot markets. Therefore, these investors believe spot tin prices may again slip below RMB 150,000/mt.