SMM Aluminum Market Morning Review (2013-3-12)

SHANGHAI, Mar. 12 (SMM) – It was announced last Friday that China’s CPI hit a 10-month high in February. The Fitch Ratings downgraded Italy’s credit rating due to unstable political situation in the country following the general election. These negative news drove LME aluminum down to USD 1,935/mt during early European trading session, the lowest since November 22, 2012. Later, a softer US dollar helped LME aluminum recover some losses at the tail of trading. Finally, LME aluminum closed down 0.25% at USD 1,958/mt. Latest LME aluminum inventories increased 1,075 mt to 5,189,975 mt.

Aluminum prices will be range-bound as investors are cautious. LME aluminum should struggle at USD 1,950/mt and fluctuate in the band of USD 1,940-1,970/mt on Tuesday. SHFE 1306 aluminum contract prices are expected to open lower at RMB 14,900/mt, with prices between RMB 14,850-14,950/mt. In spot markets, a supply glut will widen the price spread between deliverable and non-deliverable aluminum ingot. Spot discounts of RMB 90-130/mt are expected due to sluggish consumption.