SHANGHAI, Mar. 11 (SMM) – It is predicted that global primary aluminum market will be in surplus for a seventh straight year in 2013. 124,000 mt of surplus aluminum is expected in china, and another 485,000 mt in the rest of the world. However, if aluminum output falls or if aluminum capacity in China and India falls short of forecasts, aluminum may be in short supply.
GAC anticipates that global aluminum demand will grow 8.4% in 2013, given that the Chinese market has turned around and that signs of recovery have emerged in Asia, North America, Latin America, the Middle East and East Europe. However, demand will not improve for the immediate term since markets in West Europe and Japan remain depressing.
Aluminum will be in short supply in 2013. This is because aluminum available on the markets is less than in late 2008. Besides, 70% of aluminum has been held as collateral because of liquidity crunch.
A likely shortfall in aluminum supply in 2013 will push up aluminum premium. The Middle East is the major aluminum exporting region where there are many large aluminum producers such as the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman and Qatar. (Edited by SMM)