SMM Aluminum Market Morning Review (2013-3-1)

SHANGHAI, Mar. 1 (SMM) – The final reading of Spain’s 4Q GDP shrank 1.9% YoY. The 4Q GDP of the US was revised to a meager 0.1% growth, but still fell short of expectations. Growing worries over economy in Europe and the US, coupled with a lack of progress on negotiations over automatic spending cuts in The US, helped the US dollar index soar to near 82. As such, LME aluminum retreated from USD 2,000/mt to a low of USD 1,994/mt. However, the decline in US initial weekly jobless claims and upbeat Chicago PMI for February helped LME aluminum recover some losses at the tail of trading. Finally, LME aluminum ended the day down 0.61% at USD 2,006.8/mt. Latest LME aluminum inventories increased 950 mt to 5,162,050 mt.

Markets are staying cautious ahead of the release of manufacturing PMI from major economies and US nonfarm payrolls, all of which are due today. LME aluminum should continue to meet resistance at the 5-day moving average and fluctuate in the band of USD 1,980-2,030/mt on Friday. SHFE 1305 aluminum contract is expected to open lower at RMB 14,780/mt, with prices between RMB 14,720-14,820/mt. In spot markets, wait-and-see sentiment will dominate the market on the first day of the month, with spot discounts expected between RMB 100-140/mt.