SMM Aluminum Market Morning Review (2013-2-22)

SHANGHAI, Feb. 22 (SMM) – Fears that the US Federal Reserve may stop bond buying sooner than expected continued to negatively affect markets. Besides, February manufacturing PMI from the US and euro zone fell short of forecasts and US initial jobless claims rose again, increasing worries over global economic outlook. Against this backdrop, the US dollar index jumped to a high of 81.508, sending LME aluminum down to USD 2,070/mt and below all moving averages. Finally, LME aluminum shed 1.43% to close at USD 2,074.8/mt. Latest LME aluminum inventories increased 6,075 mt to 5,158,025 mt.

The US dollar hat met resistance at high levels, which should help curtail losses of aluminum prices. LME aluminum should fall to USD 2,050/mt at the bottom and fluctuate in the band of USD 2,050-2,090/mt on Friday. SHFE 1305 aluminum contract is expected to open lower at RMB 14,900/mt, with prices between RMB 14,850-14,990/mt. In spot aluminum markets, excess supply against low buying interest from downstream producers and middlemen   should depress overall trading, with spot discounts expected between RMB 120-160/mt.