SMM Aluminum Market Morning Review (2013-2-19)

SHANGHAI, Feb. 19 (SMM) – The US financial markets were closed yesterday for the Presidents' Day and the US dollar index stabilized above 80.5. Oversupply pressure is growing after the Chinese New Year holiday, while downstream producers have not yet resumed production, sparking strong bearish sentiment. As such, LME aluminum retreated from the 5-day and 10-day moving average to a low of USD 2,114.3/mt. LME aluminum failed to rally at the tail of trading, and finally finished at USD 2,123/mt, down 1.87%. Latest LME aluminum inventories increased 11,700 mt to 5,156,850 mt.

Strong bearishness will cause aluminum prices to extend losses. LME aluminum should meet resistance at the 5-day moving average and fluctuate in the band of USD 2,100-2,140/mt on Tuesday. SHFE 1305 aluminum contract will open lower at RMB 15,150/mt, with prices between RMB 15,080-15,180/mt. With high inventories and sluggish downstream consumption, spot discounts are expected to expand to RMB 110-150/mt after SHFE 1303 aluminum contracts become the new current-month contract.