SMM Aluminum Market Morning Review (2013-1-29)

SHANGHAI, Jan. 29 (SMM) – Economic data announced by the US overnight was mixed. The sharp decline in December existing home sales offset the growth of December durable goods orders. LME aluminum prices fell during the European session and closed down for three straight trading days as investors were hesitant. Resistance at USD 2,060/mt was strong, but LME aluminum did temporarily find support at the 60-day moving average. Finally, LME aluminum closed at USD 2,046/mt, down 0.29%. Latest LME aluminum inventories increased 4,200 mt to 5,161,175 mt.

Aluminum prices will continue to move at low levels, with no upward momentum. LME aluminum should meet resistance at the 5-day moving average and fluctuate in the band of USD 2,040-2,060/mt on Tuesday. The SHFE 1303 aluminum contract is expected to open at RMB 15,160/mt, with prices between RMB 15,100-15,200/mt. Few sellers and buyers will enter the market as Chinese New Year is approaching, with spot discounts expected between RMB 90-110/mt.