SMM Aluminum Market Morning Review (2013-1-25)

SHANGHAI, Jan. 25 (SMM) – The preliminary manufacturing PMI for January in China, euro zone and the US, released yesterday, all hit a two-year high. The US new weekly jobless claims fell to a five-year low. These figures signal global economic recovery. However, upbeat data also means that existing stimulus policies may end early and makes it less likely that more easing policies will be introduced. Market reactions are mixed. In this context, LME aluminum fell back after hitting high, hovering around the30-day moving average. Finally, LME aluminum closed at USD 2,070.5/mt, down 0.31%. Latest LME aluminum inventories decreased 3,450 mt to 5,164,150 mt.

Expanding manufacturing activities both home and abroad will help aluminum prices stabilize. LME aluminum should continue to struggle at USD 2,070/mt and fluctuate in the band of USD 2,050-2,090/mt on Friday. The SHFE 1303 aluminum contract is expected to open at RMB 15,125/mt, with prices between RMB 15,110-15,180/mt. Supply will be ample, but downstream producers will only make modest restocking before the weekend, leaving overall trading moderate, with spot discounts expected between RMB 100-130/mt.