SMM Aluminum Market Morning Review (2013-1-23)

SHANGHAI, Jan. 23 (SMM) – The US announced overnight that the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for December and Richmond Fed manufacturing index for January both shrank and were well below expectations. What’s worse, US existing home sales also slid in December. Nevertheless, easing monetary policy introduced earlier by the Bank of Japan and the jump in the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment in Germany in January did help offset discouraging economic data from the US. Debt ceiling talks in the US began Wednesday and it’s likely that a four-month extension of debt limit may be passed. Once passed, it will reduce the risk of default. In response, LME aluminum jumped to the 20-day moving average after breaking through USD 2,050/mt. Finally, LME aluminum finished at USD 2,071/mt, up 1.27%. Latest LME aluminum inventories decreased 6,075 mt to 5,171,400 mt.

Gains of aluminum prices will be curbed as markets are cautious. LME aluminum should struggle at USD 2,050/mt and fluctuate in the band of USD 2,040-2,075/mt on Wednesday. The SHFE 1303 aluminum contract is expected to open at RMB 15,190/mt, with prices between RMB 15,140-15,240/mt. Spot discounts are expected between RMB 100-140/mt since supply will exceed demand. Overall trading volumes will be limited.