SMM Aluminum Market Morning Review (2013-1-21)

SHANGHAI, Jan. 21 (SMM) – It was announced last Friday that China’s 4Q GDP rebounded mildly and that its GDP in 2012 was in line with the target growth of 7.9% set at the beginning of 2012. This helped push LME aluminum prices up to USD 2,067/mt. However, worries over the deadlocked debt ceiling negotiations in the US sent the US dollar index up to 80, causing LME aluminum to pare earlier gains and retreat below the 10-daty moving average. Finally, LME aluminum finished at USD 2,049.5/mt, down USD 0.5/mt or 0.02%. Latest LME aluminum inventories increased 14,800 mt to 5,188,750 mt.

Aluminum prices will move within narrow ranges due to a lack of market direction. LME aluminum should hover at USD 2,050/mt and fluctuate in the band of USD 2,030-2,070/mt on Monday. The SHFE 1303 aluminum contract is expected to open at RMB 15,175/mt, with prices between RMB 15,140-15,200/mt. Trading activities in spot aluminum market should be thin, with spot discounts expected between RMB 90-130/mt. Limited downstream restocking will leave trading light.