SMM Aluminum Market Morning Review (2013-1-15)

SHANGHAI, Jan. 15 (SMM) – China will probable expand investment in Chinese market by foreign companies, helping the Shanghai Composite Index jump to 2,300 points yesterday. As a result, LME aluminum prices hit a high of USD 2,116/mt during the European session. Nevertheless, market is still worried about the deadlocked debt ceiling issues in the US and that modified QE3 may end early. In this context, longs closed positions, driving LME aluminum down to USD 2,051.5/mt. Total positions were down 2,516 lots. Finally, LME aluminum finished at USD 2,058/mt, down USD 41.8/mt or 1.99%. Latest LME aluminum inventories increased 3,150 mt to 5,183,625 mt.

Falling LME aluminum prices will weigh down aluminum prices. LME aluminum should test support at USD 2,050/mt and fluctuate in the band of USD 2,050-2,090/mt on Tuesday. The SHFE 1303 aluminum contract is expected to open lower at RMB 15,200/mt, with prices between RMB 15,175-15,250/mt. Spot discounts are expected between RMB 0-10/mt and premiums between RMB 0-20/mt since today is the last trading day of the SHFE 1303 aluminum contracts. Market supply should exceed demand and overall trading will be light.