SMM Aluminum Market Morning Review (2013-1-8)

SHANGHAI, Jan. 8 (SMM) – Market is worried that QE3 may end ahead of schedule, causing LME aluminum to slid to USD 2,034.3/mt in early European session, its lowest since November 29, 2012. As market aversion faded later, the US dollar index plummeted, attracting longs to buy metals at lows. As a result, LME aluminum staged a strong rally and recovered earlier losses. Finally, LME aluminum closed USD 6.8/mt or 0.33% higher at USD 2,072.8/mt. Latest LME aluminum inventories decreased 3,725 mt to 5,213,525 mt.

Aluminum is expected to trade in a tight range due to a lack of market direction. LME aluminum should test support at USD 2,050/mt and fluctuate in the band of USD 2,040-2,080/mt on Tuesday. The SHFE 1303 aluminum contract is expected to open at RMB 15,300/mt, with prices between RMB 15,250-15,350/mt. Traders will hold offers firm, while downstream producers and middlemen should go bargain-hunting, with spot discounts expected between RMB 30-70/mt.