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CORRECTED-China Oil, Iron Ore Imports Point to Demand Revival

iconDec 11, 2012 13:33
Source:SMM
China's imports of iron ore were the second highest on record in November, while crude oil imports were at their joint third highest daily rate.

(Corrects bullet points, first paragraph to remove reference to crude oil imports being the second highest on record. They were at their joint third highest daily rate.)
   
* Iron ore shipments 2nd highest on record in Nov
* Daily crude imports joint 3rd highest on record
* Copper shipments up, but underlying demand seen weak
* Week-long October holiday distorts monthly growth rates
* Weak margins discouraging soy imports despite November rise

BEIJING, Dec 10 - China's imports of iron ore were the second highest on record in November, while crude oil imports were at their joint third highest daily rate, providing encouraging signals on demand for commodities in the world's second-largest economy.
   
The strength in consumption in Monday's customs data, came despite disappointing overall foreign trade data, showing overall imports were flat in November and exports rose just 2.9 percent.
   
Iron ore imports rose 17 percent from October to 65.78 million tonnes, while crude imports were up 3 percent on the month to 5.69 million barrels per day (bpd).
   
"It does appear, based on the evidence of the data, that the Chinese economy has bottomed out," said Ben Le Brun, market analyst at OptionsXpress in Sydney.
    
"Being the world's second-largest oil consumer, indications of a sustained recovery in China's economy will be supportive for oil prices."
   
OCTOBER HOLIDAY DELAYS SHIPMENTS
Copper imports in November also soared 13.5 percent on the month to 365,331 tonnes, but analysts were cautious, saying the data owed more to anomalies than to any increase in underlying demand.
   
"This year's increase in copper imports does not correspond to economic growth," said Dominic Schnider, head of commodity research at UBS Wealth Management. "We have the inventory buildup in China while Chinese acceleration in economic growth next year is going to be modest at best."
   
Part of the reason for some commodity imports showing a rebound in November was China's week-long National Day holiday beginning Oct. 1, which delayed shipments until last month.
   
"Due to the week-long holiday in the beginning of October, some people didn't import much (copper) in that month, that's why you see a rise in November imports," said Zhou Jie, analyst with CIFCO Futures in Shanghai. "Consumption of the physical metal is still quite bad, and stockpiles are still very high."
   
Imports of anode, refined copper, alloy and semi-finished copper products dropped 18.5 percent month-on-month in October to 321,879 tonnes, and despite the November recovery, imports remain 19.2 percent lower than the same month of last year.  
   
Iron ore shipments were also likely to have been disrupted by the holiday, with cargoes declining 13.2 percent in October.
   
MARGINS
Soy shipments gained 3.2 percent to 4.16 million tones after crashing 18.9 percent in October, with margins and demand improving ahead of the peak demand period before Chinese new year in February.
   
Soybean imports had tumbled in October not just because of the holiday but also on a decline in shipments from drought-affected South America and poor crushing margins at home.
   
November imports, while up, did not recover to September levels, with margins last month still mostly negative. Rising demand is widely expected to improve the economics of importing soy in December and January, but supplies are tightening.
   
For copper, analysts said demand was still weak and the ratios between domestic and LME prices remained unattractive, making a further import increase in December unlikely. 
   
Some oil traders also warned that refining margins should be monitored to check on the underlying health of the economy. 
   
"The key factors to watch out for is: if refineries are making money, and, if fuel stocks are quietly piling up as sales may not match the increases in new production," said a trading manager with CNOOC.

 

China's iron ore imports

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