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SMM Aluminum Market Morning Review (2012-10-19)
Oct 19,2012 09:22CST
price review forecast
Source:SMM
China’s 3Q GDP was line with expectations and beat the full-year target, despite its decline, easing market worries over the domestic economic slowdown.

SHANGHAI, Oct. 19 (SMM) – China’s 3Q GDP was line with expectations and beat the full-year target, despite its decline, easing market worries over the domestic economic slowdown. The US economic data released overnight was mixed. The US jobless claims rise, but leading indicators for September rebounded appreciably, easing employment pressure to some extent. LME aluminum repeatedly struggled at USD 2,000/mt during the European session, with support at the 5-day moving average and resistance at the 10-day moving average. Finally, LME aluminum ended the day up USD 23.5/mt or 1.18% at USD 2,010.5/mt. Latest LME aluminum inventories were down 9,800 mt to 5,048,450 mt.

Little progress has been made in debt rescue during the EU summit. The US dollar index will rebound as a result, weighing down aluminum prices. LME aluminum should struggle at USD 2,000/mt and move between USD 1,980-2,020/mt on Friday. The SHFE 1212 aluminum contract is expected to open slightly higher at RMB 15,520/mt on Friday, with prices between RMB 15,470-15,570/mt since longs and shorts will exit the market. Spot discounts are expected between RMB 70-110/mt due to thin trading activity. Traders will show higher intention to move goods at the end of the month.
 

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