SMM Aluminum Market Morning Review (2012-10-15)

SHANGHAI, Oct. 15 (SMM) – Last Friday, market was eyeing China’s economic data for September due this week. Persisting worries over demand and risk aversion ahead of the LME Annual General Meeting sent LME aluminum below the 5-day moving average. LME aluminum failed to hold onto USD 2,000/mt due to short selling. Finally, LME aluminum closed at an intraday low of USD 1,986.5/mt, down USD 31.5/mt or 1.56%. Latest LME aluminum inventories surged by 22,300 mt to 5,069,575 mt. The surge in inventories for two days in a row will put downward pressure on aluminum prices.
 

Aluminum prices will be weak this week market is worrying China’s economic growth may decline while awaiting the domestic economic data for September. LME aluminum should struggle at the 60-day moving average on Monday, with prices between USD 1,950-2,000/mt. The SHFE 1212 aluminum contract is expected to open lower at RMB 15,400/mt and move between RMB 15,320-15,460/mt. Spot discounts will be between positive RMB 20/mt and negative RMB 20/mt as today is the last trading day of the 1210 aluminum contract. Trading should be light as buyers and sellers will mostly stand on the sidelines.