SMM Tin Market Daily Review (2012/10/8)

SHANGHAI, Oct. 9 (SMM) -- During the morning trading hours in the Shanghai tin spot market, mainstream traded prices advanced to RMB 158,500-159,500/mt as LME tin prices inched up during holiday. However, transactions were not brisk as wait-and-see sentiment was still strong during the first trading day. During the afternoon trading hours, spot tin prices fell along with LME tin price decline, with mainstream traded prices between RMB 157,500-158,500/mt. Traded prices of Yunxi brand tin, Yunxiang brand tin and Yunshan brand tin were between RMB 158,000-158,500/mt, and mainstream traded prices of Jinlong brand tin and Lanshan brand tin were around RMB 157,500/mt.
 
With regard to market outlook, 70% market players were cautious and believed that spot tin prices would move in the RMB 156,000-158,000/mt range. Technically speaking, LME tin prices will find support at 10-day moving average and meet resistance at USD 22,800/mt. In addition, soft consumption of spot tin will fail to lend support for LME tin prices. Due to domestic economic slowdown, downstream orders did not increase and profits margin was small, which shall not boost tin consumption. Meanwhile, any room for prices to fall will also be limited, as LME tin prices advanced above USD 22,000/mt already, lending certain support for spot tin prices.
 
30% market players believe that LME tin prices will continue to fall in the following week. Their reasons are as follows. First, the US dollar index rebounded, which weighed on LME tin prices. If LME tin prices lost support at 5-day moving average, it will fall to test USD 21,750/mt. Furthermore, the soft domestic consumption and ample supply of tin will drag down spot tin prices. They pessimistic players believe that spot tin prices fall to pre-holiday level at RMB 155,000/mt in the coming week.