China Cu Apparent Consumption Data Analysis in June 2012

SHANGHAI, Jul. 30 (SMM) –

Refined Copper
China's apparent consumption of refined copper during June was 732,600 mt, up on both a MoM and YoY basis. China's refined copper output during June was flat with a past historical high, but refined copper imports were relatively low. Since China's refined copper exports fell noticeably in June compared to May, domestic apparent consumption of refined copper rose by 49,000 mt from May levels. According to an SMM survey of upstream and downstream producers, as well as traders, China's overall copper stocks edged down in June, so SMM believes actual refined copper consumption was slightly higher than apparent consumption. In addition, consumption at copper plate, sheet, strip, and tube/pipe producers is expected to turn sluggish, so China's actual consumption of refined copper will likely fall in July.

Copper Semis
China's apparent consumption of copper semis during June was around 1.26 million mt, a historical monthly high, and due largely to an increase in domestic copper semis output. As some copper semis producers stepped up efforts to meet semi-annual production targets, China's copper semis output rose to as high as 1.25 million mt in June. However, based on an SMM survey of copper semis producers and electric wire and cable producers, actual demand did not appear to improve appreciably during June. The SMM survey also revealed that finished goods inventories at copper semis producers, especially copper plate, sheet, and strip producers, grew significantly during the month. July is a traditionally low demand period, and coupled with existing high finished goods inventories, SMM anticipates China's apparent consumption of copper semis during July will fall.