SMM Morning Review - 2012/7/25 Nickel Market

SHANGHAI, Jul. 25 (SMM) – LME nickel prices overnight opened at USD 15,689/mt, with the high end USD 15,750/mt, finding support at USD 15,470/mt. Finally, LME nickel prices closed at USD 15,713/mt, down USD 113/mt. Trading volumes decreased by 580 lots to 2,728 lots, and total position was 107,009 lots, up 984 lots. LME nickel inventories were 110,580 mt, down 42 mt.

Euro zone PMI for July was 44.1, lower than previous or expected figure, with German PMI during July 49.7; French PMI was 43.6. Besides, Spanish 10-year government bond yields rose by 8 basis points to 7.51%. With concerns over European debt crisis and manufacturing outlook, base metals prices plunged. LME nickel prices hit a record low since July 2009 at USD 15,470/mt. Although LME nickel prices closed up USD 113/mt as large numbers of shorts left the market with profit-taking, prices still meet resistance.

LME base metals prices extended declines, with concerns over European debt crisis improving. EU officials said yesterday Greece will unlikely be able to pay its debt, and need further debt reshuffle, as the country still cannot meet the requirements from EU and the IMF. US Markit's manufacturing index during July slid to a record low since December 2010, and euro zone private sector shrank for the sixth consecutive month. HSBC released China's PMI during July was 49.5, compared to the previous 48.2. The US dollar index continued to rise and hit a three-year high, so SHFE zinc prices will not stop falling.

LME nickel prices should move between USD 15,300-15,800/mt today, and domestic spot nickel prices should move between RMB 113,000-116,000/mt.