SMM Aluminum Price Forecast (Jul. 16-20)

SHANGHAI, Jul. 16 (SMM) -- China's June CPI and PPI figures hit 36-month lows, and China’s trade surplus hit a new high from January 2009 since imports were far below expectations. China’s 2Q GDP growth fell sharply to 7.6%, a strong signal that stable growth will become the government’s priority and that further easing of monetary policy can be expected. The debt crisis in Greece and Spain has now spread to Italy, which that country’s sovereign debt rating was downgraded. The US Federal Reserve members are split on the implementation of QE3 and support is lacking for its use, so the US dollar index is expected to stay high near 83. Aluminum prices will continue to cut losses as short selling picks up, with LME aluminum testing support at USD 1,800/mt. The low-end for the most active SHFE aluminum contract should slip to RMB 15,200/mt. Spot discounts over current-month SHFE aluminum prices will continue to grow to RMB 100/mt,  even after a shift in current-month contracts. Supply will remain in surplus and trading will be light.