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SMM Morning Review - 2012/7/16 Nickel Market
Jul 16,2012 09:53CST
price review forecast
Source:SMM
LME nickel prices overnight opened at USD 15,815/mt, with the high end USD 16,330/mt, finding support at USD 15,800/mt.

SHANGHAI, Jul. 16 (SMM) – LME nickel prices overnight opened at USD 15,815/mt, with the high end USD 16,330/mt, finding support at USD 15,800/mt. Finally, LME nickel prices closed at USD 16,200/mt, up USD 310/mt. Trading volumes decreased by 1,404 lots to 2,959 lots, and total position was 112,503 lots, up 579 lots. LME nickel inventories were 105,912 mt, down 150 mt.

China's GDP during 2Q released last Friday grew 7.6% YoY, in line with expectations. Seasonal rate of GDP rose 1.8%, higher than the 1.6% expected. The annual rate of China's industry output during June was up 9.5%, lower than the 9.8% expected. China's retail sales in June rose 13.7%, higher than the 13.4% expected. The market rose in response. JPMorgan's financial report was better than forecasts, with profit margins USD 5 billion in the quarter. As a result, US stocks climbed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average exceeded 200 points, pushing up LME nickel prices to close at USD 16,200/mt, up USD 310/mt.

LME base metals prices last Friday rose sharply. Domestic GDP during 2Q rose 7.6% YoY, falling for the sixth straight quarter since December 2012, and the lowest in three years. GDP during 1H was up 7.8% YoY, also lower than the same period last year, but still in line with expectations. The market expects China will take further stimulus policies to stabilize economic growth, casing futures markets to rise.

LME nickel prices should move between USD 15,900-16,500/mt today, and domestic spot nickel prices should move between RMB 117,000-120,000/mt.
 

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