SMM Weekly Forecast on China Silicon Metal Market (Jul. 16-20)

SHANGHAI, Jul. 13 (SMM) –

Supply
According to SMM survey, silicon metal stocks at Huangpu port's Hongkai and Yuehua warehouses hold above 25,000 mt this week, and above 30,000 mt at two major warehouses in Yunnan's Kunming, unchanged from the previous week. As silicon metal prices fall since early July, more Chinese silicon metal producers begin to halt production. However, according to changes in silicon metal stocks at major warehouses, the silicon metal market is still in surplus at present.

Demand
The average operating rate at Chinese aluminum alloy producers has been lower than last year, and since now is the traditionally low demand period, these producers' demand for silicon metal has fallen. With regard to polysilicon producers, they just purchased silicon metal in small quantities recently owing to earlier raw material stocks. Silicon metal demand from the silicone industry, though, stays comparatively stable this week.

Forecast
Silicon metal prices have suffered more downside room after #553 silicon metal prices retreated below RMB 11,000/mt. For the time being, #553 silicon metal prices are lurching at a low of RMB 10,000/mt, which has incurred losses for over 95% of silicon metal producers. SMM believes Chinese silicon metal prices will drop by RMB 100-200/mt in the coming week.  

Mainstream traded prices at Huangpu port will be around RMB 10,100/mt for #553 silicon metal, RMB 10,800/mt for #441 silicon metal, RMB 11,800/mt for #3303 silicon metal and 12,900/mt for #2202 silicon metal in the following week.