SMM Morning Review - 2012/7/5 Aluminum Market

SHANGHAI, Jul. 5 (SMM) – Base metals prices dropped on the London Metals Exchange overnight, as the euro weakened to push the US dollar index above 82 amid higher expectations that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates, following delivery of weak euro zone economic data. LME aluminum started at USD 1,970/mt and hit a high of USD 1,982/mt, only to drop back to close down USD 15/mt or 0.76% at USD 1,956/mt, after finding its low at USD 1,953/mt. It is now pressured above the 30-day moving average. Positions of the light metal dropped 5,913 lots to 693,987 lots, while transacted contracts lost 14,441 lots to 10,559 lots during cautious trading before the ECB interest rate meeting.

Aluminum trading should remain cautious before the ECB interest rate meeting. While fundaments within China have changed little, pressure from recent power rate cuts still exists. The most active SHFE aluminum contract for October delivery should start slightly lower and fluctuate downward after LME aluminum prices dropped overnight. The trading band should be RMB 15,500-15,650/mt. Aluminum stocks have regained a slight growth as aluminum smelters cancel output cuts after production costs dropped. Spot discounts over the current-month SHFE aluminum price are expected to stay within RMB 10-50/mt.