2012-01-19 MOSCOW (Xinhua) - This year would be more turbulent than 2011, with no easy solution in sight for key global problems that are deeply-rooted in politics, economy and culture, a well-known Russian political analyst told Xinhua in an interview.
In the eyes of Yuri Tavrovsky, a professor at the Moscow Friendship University, the prospect is not rosy as he envisioned the development of several major global events in this year.
Uncertainty of dollar
According to Tavrovsky, the main cause of the turbulence in 2012 could be the current global financial system, which has already yielded one crisis after another.
With regards to the eurozone crisis, he said there could be several finales, including "dividing the eurozone into two parts or the countries completely return to the national currencies."
Talking about the US dollar, he thought the crisis of dollar would deepen in 2012.
"The crisis was caused not only by deterioration of the US economic situation but also by growing wills of countries to cut their dollar reserves or quit the dollar zone completely," he said.
Regarding the dollar as a kind of weapon to keep its hegemony, the United States has changed its policies in response to worries over the future of dollar, the analyst said.
"On the one hand, this policy will be affected by the forces of isolationism who demand to stop expensive wars and spendthrift policies. On the other hand, expansionist forces will coerce Washington to step up pressure on countries that pursue independent financial and economic policy," Tavrovsky said.
He added that the expansionists' policies would affect China, the European Union, Russia, Brazil, Venezuela, Iran and others.
"These forces (within the US) will clash each other during the upcoming US presidential elections with unpredictable outcome," Tavrovsky said.
Middle East region has been a hot spot in the world in 2011. The analyst believed tension would remain in the region in 2012 and he didn't rule out possibilities of civil wars in Libya, Yemen, Syria and Egypt.
"Also, Turkey may attack Kurdish regions in Iraq and Syria, which could lead to a regional war," Tavrovsky said.
He noted that relations between Pakistan and the United States might worsen even more and an Israeli attack on Iran was also likely.
"Asia Pacific region will become an important arena, where the confrontation will escalate," he added.
According to Tavrovsky, developments in the Middle East depend on the level of independence of the Israeli government and the degree of Washington's readiness to trigger a global economic and financial crisis to keep dollar as a main global currency.
"Netanyahu government is mainly concerned over the ruling party's power and the survival of the Jewish state within neighborhood of Arab nations," Tavrovsky said.
"He could easily pull the trigger without the US approval and without the far sight of the chain events in the Mideast and the world as a whole," he added.
The analysts believed Washington, in its place, could also push Israel or NATO to attack Iran in case euro collapses and financial crisis threatens to affect dollar.
With regards to newly raised political parties in the region, Tavrovsky said the parties demonstrate shifts to Islamism in various degree.
"These parties represent interests of various tribes and regions and are fed by various financial sources. So in next few years, the political life in the Middle East will be motley and fluid," Tavrovsky said.
The analyst also stressed the importance of Asia, as Russia, like the United States, has paid more attentions to the region.
"The year of 2012 will be a 'Pacific' year for Russia, as the APEC summit will be held in Vladivostok," Tavrovsky said.
He noted that Russian leaders would continue communicating with other countries, including the US, China, Japan and countries in the Asia-Pacific region, on several issues, in a bid to develop Russia's remote and undeveloped Far East region.
The analyst also warned about possible deployment of new US bases and drills close to Russia and China.
Talking about the dispute between Russia and the US on the European missile defense system, Tavrovsky said the issue could not be resolved overnight, as the problem concerns with core interests of the countries.
He believed the relations between Moscow and the West would not change much after Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's return to the Kremlin.
"Putin likes to create a tough image on domestic purposes. In reality, he is an opponent of the West only on the surface. In real life he has never done anything to undermine the Western principal interests," the analyst said.
Tavrovsky also highly valued Russia-China relations, saying the countries would continue developing bilateral ties in various field.
"Russia and China will further step up cooperation in trade and economy, including cross-border cooperation, and international affairs," Tavrovsky said.
"Generally, fast-growing trade volume and rather good quality of Russia-China bilateral relations help maintain positive momentum for the countries. Their relations are irreversible," he added.