SMM Morning Review - 2012/1/10 Copper Market

SHANGHAI, Jan. 10 (SMM) –There were fewer economic reports announced Monday. German and French leaders met to discuss euro zone member states should establish closer financial integration. Besides, investors speculated the European Central Bank (ECB) this week would announce its latest decision on the interest rate and hold a news conference. Before a set of important events occurred, investors conducted short covering, which helped the euro rally from the previous day's low. However, Europe's financial crisis was still without a concrete solution, depressing the outlook for global economic recovery. As a result, LME copper prices suffered some selling pressures at high price points during Monday's US and European trading hours before finally settling at USD 7,511/mt, fluctuating around the daily moving average and failing to pare Asian trading hours' declines.

Market attention Tuesday will shift to China where some important economic data will be announced, and markets expect the December CPI will probably fall further in the country, but that the GDP will fall, providing guidance for commodity market movement since it indicates further slow in China's economic growth. Comex copper prices pushed up this morning owing to a decline in the US dollar, which will help the low-end LME copper price rise compared with the prior day. Therefore, LME copper prices are expected to move between USD 7,480 -7,580/mt during Tuesday's Asian trading hours. Chinese stock markets will likely fall and surrender some of the gains following Monday's significant surges, which will drag down SHFE copper prices. Hence, SHFE copper prices will probably experience a round of rises after the release of Chinese economic data, while SHFE 1203 copper contract prices will fluctuate in the RMB 55,200 -55,900/mt band. Spot copper offers are estimated between discounts of negative RMB 100-0/mt.