SMM Morning Review - 2011/11/28 Copper Market

SHANGHAI, Nov. 28 (SMM) –Data revealed last Friday that Italy paid a record 6.5% to borrow money over six months, weighing down commodity markets and increasing investor worries that a spread of the European debt crisis would slip global economy into recession. In response, the US dollar index climbed to a level near 80 for safe-havens, leading LME copper prices to extend losses and fall to a low of USD 7,140/mt. However, as Asian traders later made bargain hunting at low LME copper prices and due to the improved SHFE/LME copper price ratio, and since the US and European stock markets last Friday rebounded due to technical support following significant declines on the previous day, LME copper prices pared earlier losses and finally closed at USD 7,270/mt.

Despite bearish sentiment, the US commodity markets experienced slight rebounds on the first trading day after the Thanksgiving holiday, which will help LME copper prices move between USD 7,200-7,380/mt during today's Asian trading hours. Chinese stock markets will continue to meet resistance at 2,400 points, imposing some pressures on SHFE copper prices. SHFE 1202 copper contract prices will fluctuate in the RMB 53,500-54,800/mt band. In the spot market, the SHFE/LME copper price ratio will continue to improve, but any increase in copper premiums will be limited since downstream producers are expected to stand on the sidelines today, with copper premiums estimated between positive RMB 500-720/mt versus SHFE 1112 copper contracts.