SMM Morning Review - 2011/10/26 Copper Market

SHANGHAI, Oct. 26 (SMM) –European Union (EU) spokesman overnight said the EU summit would still be held on Wednesday, but the gathering of finance ministers was canceled because details of the meeting had not been finalized. There was no sign of an agreement on the reduction of Greece's debt for private sector bondholders, and uncertainties remained over the size of a planned bank recapitalization and the scope for leveraging the Euro-zone rescue fund. In this context, investor doubts about whether or not European leaders could find a solution to the region's debt crisis on the Wednesday summit reappeared. Later, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao reiterated that fighting inflation remained China's top priority and that the government should appropriately adjust policy in a timely manner, again triggering market worries over China copper demand. In the evening, data showed the US consumer confidence index for October surprisingly slid to 39.8 from a revised 46.4 in September, down to the lowest in two and a half years, causing US equity markets to close down. Combined with cautious sentiment before the EU summit, investors shifted capitals to risk aversion commodities, which helped the US dollar index close higher. In response, LME copper prices slipped quickly and touched USD 7,428/mt at the low-end, with temporary support at the 30-day moving average. Finally, LME copper prices closed at USD 7,539/mt, down more than 1.5%, and ending the gains in the previous two days.

Asian markets today will continue to absorb negative news and data on the prior day. Comex copper prices posted weak performance this morning, and LME copper prices still met resistance to move higher. Besides, investors keep wary of trading before the EU summit. Thus, LME copper prices are expected to move between USD 7,420 -7,600/mt during today's Asian trading hours. Chinese stock markets will open lower due to a down close in US equity markets overnight, and will test the support at 2,400 points. SHFE copper prices will open down and fluctuate, while SHFE 1201 copper contract prices will fluctuate in the RMB 54,500 -56,000/mt range.