MF Global Daily Report: Precious Metals (Sept. 26, 2011)

Sept. 26 - Price Outlook

Precious metals prices are expected to exhibit a V-shaped pattern this week, where weakness in gold and silver takes the two markets down to support near $1,580 and $26.30 respectively before rebounding late in the week. We look for pressure to come from Friday’s hike in exchange margins, technical damage done in last week’s trade, a bearish flag pattern in the silver market, the lack of ETF liquidation, and the stronger dollar resulting from the FOMC’s action last Wednesday. A recovery later in the week is possible if metals hold at key support levels, bargain-hunting amid short-term oversold conditions returns, and European governments and the ECB take further steps to aid Greece. There are three key votes on the EFSF this week and the ECB meeting is in less than two weeks where a rate cut is possible. We favor buying a dip in gold at $1,580 and targeting a recovery toward $1,700.