SMM Morning Review - 2011/9/20 Copper Market

SHANGHAI, Sept. 20 (SMM) –Markets Monday continued to be dominated by worries over the European debt crisis. The US in the evening announced the US NAHB Housing Market Index for September, which was weaker than market expected and the previous figure. Besides, Obama's relative measures were not seen to produce effects, failing to ease market sentiment. In this context, investors continued to cut their holdings of positions for risk aversion, with global stock markets generally moving downside. In addition, crude oil futures prices closed near USD 85/bbl, the lowest settlement price since August 2011. As a result, LME copper prices slipped all the way, touching a new yearly low of USD 8,323/mt and finally closing at USD 8,348/mt, down nearly 4%, and the biggest daily decline since early March 2011. Since early August, LME copper prices have dropped about 16%, and investor pessimism about the Euro-zone area and current economic expectations is obviously growing after Standard & Poor's confirmed to downgrade Italy's credit ratings following closings of the US and European markets.

Comex copper prices continued to move lower in Tuesday's morning business, and crude oil prices also tended to remain weak. However, gold prices were slightly higher due to a safe-haven, which is negative for daily LME copper price trends Tuesday. Furthermore, markets need to digest the negative news of a downgrade of Italian credit ratings by Standard & Poor's, which will cause the euro to move downward and weigh on LME copper prices. However, markets are hopefully awaiting the US Federal Reserve meeting to be held Tuesday evening. Hence, LME copper prices will weakly fluctuate around USD 8,300/mt during Tuesday's Asian trading hours, with prices expected between USD 8,310-8,420/mt. In Chinese markets, short investors will be cautious to build new positions after SHFE copper prices open significantly lower. SHFE copper prices will hardly be able to correct downside trends after a low open since Chinese stock markets will remain weak, while SHFE 1112 copper contract prices will move in the RMB 62,500-63,500/mt range.