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SMM Morning Review - 2011/9/19 Copper Market
Sep 19,2011 09:56CST
price review forecast
LME copper prices are expected to move between USD 8,590 -8,690/mt, while SHFE 1112 copper contract prices will fluctuate between RMB 64,500-65,400/mt.

SHANGHAI, Sept. 19 (SMM) –Last Friday, as euro-zone finance ministers met for two days of talks, traders seemed to be troubled. In Friday's earlier trading hours, LME copper prices briefly broke USD 8,800/mt and climbed to a high of USD 8,835/mt, driven by market expectations that the meeting would take some decisive actions. However, there was news that Greek debt could probably be rolled over, causing the euro to fall further, which helped the US dollar index close higher, and also up compared with the previous trading day. In response, investors rushed from risky assets such as commodities and stocks, with Standard & Poor's 500 Index and US equity markets sliding after the opening, which reversed early gains of LME copper prices. Later, the US announced the preliminarily Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September was 57.8, better than market expectations and the prior figure, lifting US equity markets to close slightly higher. However, rising US equity markets failed to boost futures markets since the US dollar advanced higher, continuing to weigh down LME copper prices, which closed at a recent low of USD 8,690/mt, down USD 56/mt. 

Although major global central banks last Thursday agreed to provide dollar loans for European banks in the short term, investors were more pessimistic about global economy, resulting in cautious trading sentiment and low trading volumes for LME copper last Friday. Crude oil prices posted weak performance this morning, and gold prices tended to move higher due to safe-havens, which are negative for the base metal market. As the US dollar index returned above 77 after opening higher, LME copper prices continued to slide to USD 8,600/mt after a down open, and fluctuated near the price mark this morning. Comex copper prices moved higher after the opening today, and copper supply in Chile is tightening, both of which will help LME copper prices find support at USD 8,600/mt. Therefore, LME copper prices are expected to move between USD 8,590 -8,690/mt during Monday's Asian trading hours. Chinese stock markets will continue to be pressured at 2,500 points, with weak movement. Hence, SHFE copper prices will be dragged down after opening down, and will unlikely gain support due to position closings by long and short investors, while SHFE 1112 copper contract prices will fluctuate in the RMB 64,500-65,400/mt band.   

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