SMM Daily Review - 2011/9/14 Copper Market

SHANGHAI, Sept. 15 (SMM) –SHFE 1111 copper contract prices, the most active one, opened flat at RMB 66,490/mt on Wednesday. Weighed down by the 5-day moving average, LME copper prices moved lower and broke through the USD 8,700/mt mark before the midday. Tracking declines in LME copper prices, SHFE three-month copper contract prices moved downside immediately after the opening, directly sliding below RMB 65,000/mt and falling to an intraday low of RMB 64,850/mt in the afternoon business. However, a brief and quick uplift of stocks prices helped SHFE three-month copper contract prices hover near RMB 65,000/mt. At the tail of trading, due to large-scale position closings by short investors, SHFE 1111 copper contract prices closed down again, to settle at RMB 65,050/mt, a drop of RMB 1,440/mt or 2.17%. Similar to the previous trading day, active speculative activities helped total positions for SHFE copper contracts maintain a high of near 60,000 lots. Positions for SHFE 1112 copper contracts were up 40,910 lots, while positions for SHFE 1111 copper contracts were down 812 lots and trading volumes were up 89,358 lots. Selling pressures from short investors were growing. After declining below RMB 66,000/mt, SHFE three-month copper contract prices already neared an earlier low of RMB 63,480/mt with the moving band shifting away from all daily moving averages, and faced increasing risks to fall further. 

In the spot market, SHFE copper prices continued to fall, and both imported copper and hedged copper continuously arrived in the spot market. Besides, the price gap between SHFE 1109 and 1110 copper contracts exceeded RMB 500/mt, which helped offers directly turn into discounts of negative RMB 100/mt from initial premiums of positive RMB 0/mt. Overall spot copper discounts were reported between negative RMB 150-50/mt. Traded prices for standard-quality copper were between RMB 66,150-66,300/mt in the morning business, and RMB 66,200-66,500/mt for high-quality copper. Although some buyers took the opportunity of increasing discounts to make purchases, market surpluses dampened transactions. SHFE copper prices continued to fall in the afternoon session, and bearish sentiment was growing. Coupled with the price gap of RMB 1,100/mt between SHFE 1109 and 1110 copper contracts, cargo-holders were all panic to move goods before the delivery date, leading copper discounts to expand further. As a result, discounts for imported copper expanded to around negative RMB 350/mt, and RMB 250/mt for high-quality copper. Traded prices already fell below the RMB 66,000/mt mark, between RMB 66,500-65,800/mt.