SMM Copper Price Forecast (Sept. 13-16)

SHANGHAI, Sept. 13 (SMM) –SHFE copper prices fluctuated in the RMB 67,000 -68,200/mt range. Inflationary pressures in China remained high and tight cash flows continued, negatively affecting market confidence. China's Shanghai Composite Index hovered around 2,500 points, while SHFE copper prices failed to break through RMB 68,000/mt. Speculative funds remained cautious ahead of the release of economic reports in China, with long and short investors mainly making intraday transactions. Both trading volumes and position holdings experienced significant declines.

In the coming week, SHFE copper prices will fluctuate in the RMB 67,000-68,500/mt range.

Last week, imported copper arrived in domestic markets, keeping market surpluses more pronounced. Meanwhile, uncertainties surrounding SHFE copper prices and future copper prices weakened buying interest from copper semis consumers, which was already suffering from soft demand. In this context, spot copper failed to be traded with premiums, and cargo-holders were active moving goods for cash generation. Even as the delivery date approaches, cargo-holders were making deals with slight discounts in order to promote transactions. Mainstream traded prices still fluctuated with premiums near RMB 0/mt. There was limited operating room for speculators, as risks for hedge trading increased and there was no price difference among SHFE copper contracts, and since spot copper discounts were not large enough to attract speculators, an indication that domestic copper prices lacked strong support.

With the approach of the delivery date, spot copper next week is expected to trade between discounts of negative RMB 50/mt to premiums of positive RMB 100/mt, while market surpluses continue.