[Al] This Week's Aluminum Market Forecast

SHANGHAI, Nov. 24 (CBI China) -- Pressured by increasing inventories in LME, the declining trend in LME aluminum prices could hardly change. On the other hand, the decreasing electricity cost of China's refined aluminum as well as loosened export policies for China's aluminum products, worsened LME fundamentals further. Although major overseas producers of refined aluminum had reported production suspension, moreover as cost plunged, CBI believe such production were still a trial, large-scale production cut has not appeared.  More pressures were in domestic markets. LME aluminum priced dropped to USD 1,800/mt from previously above USD 2,000/mt since October, while domestic aluminum prices fluctuated within RMB 13,000-15,000/mt. Supported by favorite news, such as refined aluminum production cut, export policy adjustment and state started reserve aluminum ingot, domestic market declined less than LME. But after all favorite news absorbed by market, further drop is inevitable. Unless other positive news to support market within this week, aluminum prices will dip below RMB 13,000/mt.

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