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Bank Expects One or Two Rate Hikes in China in Second Half This Year
Jul 4,2011 08:52CST
data analysis

BEIJING, Jul. 4 -- It is necessary for China's central bank to raise the benchmark interest rate once or twice in the second half of this year to curb rising inflation, according to a report by the Agricultural Bank of China (ABC).

In its six-month report on China's macro economy, ABC said an increase of 25 basis points in the interest rate each time would be appropriate due to linger inflationary pressure, with the coming interest rate hike very likely in early July.

Besides, it is possible for the central bank to elevate the bank reserve requirement ratio for one or two times in the second half, according to ABC.

The bank predicted a 4.8 percent year-on-year increase of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the full-year in 2011, while the gross domestic product (GDP) will expand by 9.5 percent.

Regarding the value of the Chinese currency Renminbi, ABC expected the yuan to continue strengthening against the U.S. dollar in the second half, with a rise of 5 percent this year.

China's CPI, a main gauge of inflation, spiked to a 34-month high of 5.5 percent in May and the central bank had so far hiked the benchmark interest rate twice this year by 25 basis points each time.


benchmark interest rate

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