SMM Morning Review - 2011/3/23 Aluminum Market

SHANGHAI, Mar. 23 (SMM) -- US, France and the UK launched night air raids on Libya for three times and continued to expand the no-fly zone, and continued conflict in Libya renewed market concerns over crude oil supply, and crude oil for April delivery traded at near USD 105/bbl on the New York Mercantile Exchange overnight as a result. The strengthening crude oil prices dampened the upward momentum in US dollar index, and the US dollar index kept fluctuating narrowly and faced strong pressure at 75.60, and finally closed at 75.573, down 0.105 or 0.14% compared with the previous trading day.

The weaker US dollar continued to push up LME aluminum prices to open higher at USD 2,584/mt. LME aluminum prices later moved higher to test the resistance at USD 2,600/mt, and finally stood above this level, up USD 30/mt or 1.17% compared with the previous trading day. Total positions fell by 2,117 lots to 693,139 lots.

Today, SHFE 1105 aluminum contract prices opened slightly higher driven up by strengthening LME aluminum prices, and are expected to struggle at RMB 16,700/mt. Today, SHFE 1106 aluminum contract may become the most actively traded contract following increasing positions, and SMM predicts SHFE 1106 aluminum contract prices will test the support at RMB 16,800/mt.   

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