SMM Morning Review - 2011/3/22 Aluminum Market

SHANGHAI, Mar. 22 (SMM) -- The National Association of Realtors (NAR) announced on Monday that the annual rate of US existing home sales in February was 4.88 million, much lower than the forecast of 5.15 million. Meanwhile, the existing home sales in February fell by 9.6%, exceeding the expected 4.0%, a signal that the US home markets remain weak. The uncertainties surrounding global economic recovery reduced investor risk-aversion demand. In response, the US dollar index extended declines during the European trading hours, and finally closed at 75.468, down 0.086 or 0.11% compared with the previous trading day.

The weaker US dollar helped push up LME aluminum prices to open higher at USD 2,588/mt last night, but later the negative US house data caused LME aluminum prices to fluctuate lower to hit a low of USD 2,564/mt. At the tail of trading, the US dollar index weakened further, helping LME aluminum prices reverse some losses, with LME aluminum prices finally closing at USD 2,570/mt, up USD 10/mt or 0.39% compared with the previous trading day. Total positions increased by 1,966 lots to 695,256 lots.

Today, SHFE 1105 aluminum contract prices opened slightly higher driven up by LME aluminum prices, but investors’ caution dampened the upward momentum in SHFE aluminum prices, and SMM predicts SHFE 1105 aluminum contract prices will test the support at RMB 16,600/mt today.                      

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