SMM Morning Review - 2011/3/10 Aluminum Market

SHANGHAI, Mar. 10 (SMM) -- The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) announced on March 9th that its market composite index surged to a three-month high of 514.2 last week supported by improving job markets in the US. In response, the US dollar index rebounded last night, but the escalating turmoil in Libya dampened trading sentiment, and the US dollar index finally closed at 76.73 in European trading hours, down 0.1 or 0.13% compared with the previous trading day.

The political turmoil in Middle East and North Africa pushed up crude oil prices, and higher crude oil prices dragged down the pace of global economic recovery, which negatively affected consumption of industrial metals. As a result, LME base metals prices declined again, with LME aluminum prices dipping to a low of USD 2,569.9/mt after opening higher at USD 2,620/mt. LME aluminum prices reversed some previous losses at the tail of trading due to positive credit data in the US, and finally ended at USD 2,581/mt, down USD 15/mt compared with the previous trading day, or down 0.58%. Spot aluminum exports from Libya were disrupted by the unrest, helping limit any declines in LME aluminum prices, and LME aluminum prices fell slower than other base metals prices as a result. Total positions increased by 8,878 lots to 712,152 lots.

Today, SHFE aluminum prices opened lower negatively affected by falling LME aluminum prices last night, and SMM predicts SHFE 1105 aluminum contract prices will fluctuate between RMB 16,700-16,850/mt today in view of pessimistic market trading sentiment. 

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