SMM Morning Review - 2011/2/11 Copper Market

SHANGHAI, Feb. 11 (SMM) – On Thursday, the US Department of Labor published that the initial jobless claims for the week ending on February 2nd fell to 383,000 compared with the forecast of 410,000, the lowest since the week ending on August 5th in 2008; the average data for recent four weeks fell to 415,500; the revised data released two weeks ago was 431,500 compared with the preliminary data of 430,500; the initial jobless claims for the week ending on January 29th fell to 388,800 compared with the forecast of 390,000. Positive economic data boosted the US dollar index to break through 78, hitting as high as 78.33. The US equity prices fell given that earnings at Cisco Systems Inc fell in last quarter YoY, and Dow Johns closed slightly lower, but Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed with slight gains. Investors were doubt about stability of current high copper prices amid weak demand, and worrying about demand in China, with constantly increasing copper inventories, causing LME copper prices to fell from previous high levels. However, LME copper futures for three-month delivery closed USD 29.8/mt higher at USD 9,952.8/mt, up 0.3%, supported by technical purchases. LME copper positions increased by 88 lots, and trading volumes increased by 1,004 lots. LME copper prices managed to hold on the current prices amid a strong US dollar index, indicating a strong LME copper market. In this context, SMM expects the US dollar index will fluctuate between 77.7-78.4 during the Asian trading hours on Friday, and SHFE 1105 copper contract will move between RMB 75,500-76,500/mt, and LME copper prices will continue to test the USD 10,000/mt mark in the near term.

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